Christopher Beck

Divisional Weekend Playoffs Prediction? Pain…

Posted on 09. Jan, 2009 by Chris in Football Rants

Ok, sports fans! This is one of my favorite weekends in the NFL season. In one 27-hour stretch between mid-day Saturday and mid-day Sunday, we will sort the contenders from the pretenders and whittle the remaining NFL teams down to the final four.

Who do you like this weekend? Comment on this story and let me know. Here is how I see the weekend unfolding…

Game 1: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Saturday 4:30 pm on CBS

Baltimore’s Defense is nasty, second only to Pittsburgh’s out of the remaining teams. However, I think this game will hinge on the Ravens offense. The Tennessee D is stingy, don’t get me wrong, but Baltimore has had a knack lately for being able to put points on the board, thanks in part to the unflappable rookie Joe Flacco.

Kerry Collins is a streaky QB, and he did not look sharp in his last meeting against the Black Birds. I think the Baltimore offense, not their defense, wins this game. They will be able to move the ball on Tennessee easier than the Titans will be able get things done against Ray Lewis and company.

Ed Reed will have one interception, as opposed to the two per game he has been getting lately. Ultimately though, I think the Titans running game will be held in check, and Baltimore wins a close one.

23 - 17 Ravens over the Titans

Game 2: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Saturday 8:15 pm on Fox

The Carolina Panthers are 10 point favorites in this one, despite the fact that Arizona held a 17-3 lead over the Cats into the third quarter in their first matchup earlier this season. Carolina prevailed in that game, as they will in this one. Vegas does not lay double-digit spreads for kicks, and this time they know something.

Last week aside, Arizona has been atrocious lately. They wrapped up their division and stopped playing competitive football far too early. Carolina played the Giants tough on the road three weeks ago, and followed that up with a solid road win against their perpetual-thorn-in-their-side, New Orleans.

In the last meeting, Carolina was without two of their best offensive lineman, including rookie Jonathan Otah, who mauls opposing defenders on every running play. The line is healthy now, and Carolina will be able to run at will against the Cards and keep their potent passing attack on the sidelines for much of the game.

One thing people may not have noticed, though. When Carolina runs the ball, it is not just to take time off of the clock. Their running game leads the league in big plays, and Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart can take virtually any run to the house. Arizona has a strong front seven, but once you get past them, it should be smooth sailing down the sidelines. And if by some chance the Cardinals stack the box against the run, the Panthers can hit All-world wide receiver Steve Smith for the big play over the top. I call it the “pick your poison” offense, and at Bank of America Stadium, they are rolling up nearly 30 points per game.

It should be obvious who I like in this one.

Carolina wins 38 - 20 over the Cards

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Sunday 1:00 pm on Fox

The New York Football Giants are the reigning Super Bowl Champs and are also playing in front of their home crowd in this classic rematch of NFC East foes. So why do I think it will be their last game in the Meadowlands?

Philadelphia owned the G-men in their last meeting, and Philly has been playing every week as if it were a playoff game for a month now. The Giants went on a similar unlikely run last year, and closed the deal against the previously unbeatable New England Patriots. I think having the bye-week is actually going to work against New York this time, and the Eagles will be the sharper team.

Since Andy Reid benched Donovan McNabb at halftime during a game several weeks ago, the Eagles have rallied. I have heard Coach Reid discuss his decision to do so on NFL Satellite radio, and the benching was not meant to be some way to punish McNabb or to cause a controversy. He was simply trying to light a fire under his team, who got off to a hot start but had since waned a little. It worked, although it has had some potentially damaging side-effects with the longterm relationship he had with his QB. That said, Donovan is playing with a definite chip on his shoulder, and the team is on fire.

The loss of Plexiglass Burress has been both a blessing and a curse to the Giants. The blessing is that Eli Manning has been forced to throw the ball to his other receivers. The curse is that short of a miraculous, one-handed, hold-the-ball-against-your-helmet-while-doing-a-backward-somersault catch by an reasonably unknown wide-out, it won’t be enough. No, the strength of the Giants this season has been the run, and Philadelphia has actually had the best run-defense over the last month as far as yards-per-game is measured.

Much to the chagrin of all of my New Jersey cousins, the Eagles will be heading to Charlotte next week.

Philadelphia 20 - 9 over the Champs

Game 4: San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday at 4:45 on CBS

Norv Turner is one of the worst coaches in football. There, I said it. I can’t believe the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer and put this guy in charge. Still, he has done something with the Chargers that Marty was never able to do, and that’s win in January.

However, this is another game with a team traveling from West to East and playing in inhospitable conditions. I don’t think the cold will necessarily bother San Diego; they have played bad weather games in the playoffs before. But what will hurt them is the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

The Steel Curtain is back, and Dick Lebeau has them playing with a ferocity rarely seen on the gridiron. Up until the last week of the season, the Steelers D led the league in every category that mattered. There is a reason for it - they are that good. In their last outing, they did what they were supposed to do, and that is shut-out a hapless Cleveland Browns team. Don’t try to tell them the game didn’t matter.

Big Ben is a concern in this game, but San Diego does not offer much in the way of a pass rush. Charger fans will be quick to point out that in the last meeting, the Bolts sacked Roethlisberger twice. To that I say, whoop-de-doo. He gets sacked twice just getting off the bus. Remember, that 11-10 final score was actually 18-10, but the refs hosed the call on the last second touchdown that the Steelers had and just decided the game was over.

And if by some chance San Diego puts a hit on Ben and aggravates his concussion, no worries. We have a solid backup in Byron Leftwich who can move the ball with ease.

The only thing that really concerns me is this little nugget: In the previous 17 meetings against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, San Diego has won only two. Both were in the playoffs. This time, stats are for geeks. I am going with the home team.

The Steelers Win 27 - 11 over the Chargers

There you have it. My predictions for the Divisional round. I am interested to hear your thoughts. And if by some chance you think I am completely off my rocker (not a far trip, mind you), feel free to blog your own predictions and link it in your comment. I would love to read what you have to say! And by the way, even though I didn’t actually blog it, I was 3-1 in my picks last week. How did you do?

Tags: cardinals, chargers, eagles, football, giants, nfl, Panthers, playoffs, predictions, ravens, steelers, titans